Market News: Week Ending June 12, 2026

Market News: Week Ending June 12, 2026

Statistics Canada announced that, in April, Canada's merchandise exports rose 1.6% while imports edged 0.3% higher. As a result, Canada's merchandise trade balance with the world rose to a surplus of $2.7 billion from $1.8 billion in March. This is now only the second surplus since September 2025 as energy exports reached a new high and continued to drive the broader trade balance. StatsCan simultaneously released the services trade results and a surplus of $0.1 billion was recorded in April. It is widely expected that these figures will continue to fluctuate as international trade remains unsettled. The combined, total trade surplus will be a positive sign for overall GDP growth in the second quarter. 

The U.S. Census Bureau announced that the country's international trade deficit in goods and services stood at $55.9 billion in April, narrower than the revised $56.6 billion gap now reported for March (previously reported as $60.3 billion). April exports were $327.1 billion, $8.3 billion more than March exports. April imports were $383.0 billion, $7.6 billion more than March imports. A smaller trade deficit was anticipated, so with the revisions, the report is stronger than market expectations. 

According to the U.S. National Association of Realtors, existing-home sales jumped 3.2% higher to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.17 million units in May from April’s 4.02 million unit pace. In line with the monthly move, overall sales were also up 3.2% on a year over year basis. The association attributed the sales growth in May to “the continued improvement in housing affordability” as “Income gains are also outpacing home price growth by a small margin in most parts of the country.” With the market looking for a smaller advance, these results are stronger than expectations. Activity in the housing market has a significant "ripple" effect on the broader economy. 

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the consumer price index rose 0.5% (seasonally adjusted basis) in May. Over the last 12 months, the overall index has increased 4.2%, well above the 3.8% figure posted for April and the highest since April 2023 (4.9%). The current data revealed that the energy sub-index was the primary driver, rising 3.9% on the month and standing with a 23.5% advance on a 12-month basis. Further, core inflation (CPI ex food and energy) rose 2.9% (y/y) for May matching the April report. These figures are in line with market expectations as the energy price surge has been well documented. Market participants will remain focused on any developments in energy pricing and the broader inflation implications heading into the Fed’s next two-day policy meeting, scheduled for June 16 and 17. 

The Bank of Canada announced that it was holding administered interest rates steady once more at the conclusion of its latest monetary policy meeting. The announcement leaves the target range for overnight borrowing at 2.25% to 2.50% with the official, benchmark Bank Rate at 2.50%. The Bank also maintained the official Deposit Rate at 2.20%. This is the fifth consecutive “on hold” announcement and leaves administered interest rates at their lowest level since July 12, 2022. Rate cuts between June 2024 and October 2025 resulted in a total reduction of 275 basis points (a basis point is 1/100th of one per cent). The Bank statement highlighted the recent surprise contraction in GDP, noting that the results were “weaker than expected at the time of the April Monetary Policy Report.”  Weakness in the job market was also noted. “The unemployment rate remains in the 6½% - 7% range.”  Considerable uncertainty remains, fueled by both the conflict in the Middle East and broader changes in international trading patterns. The market will likely remain cautious in setting its expectations for the next policy announcement scheduled for July 15, 2026. 

Statistics Canada announced that building permits reversed course, falling 7.6% in May. The monthly move follows a revised 10.6% increase in April (originally reported as 10.3%). The May decline was led by a 10.5% weakening in non-residential permits while the residential sector posted a 5.5% drop. Despite the monthly decline, total overall permits are now up 6.1% on a year-over-year basis. Non-residential permits are up 11.0% but residential permits are up just 3.0%, on this basis. Even with the wide swings seen recently, these results are weaker than market expectations. Permits are an indicator of the future level of activity in the construction sector. Canada’s ongoing housing shortage has placed considerable focus on residential permitting. 

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that its Producer Price Index – Final Demand (PPI-FD) climbed 1.1% higher (seasonally adjusted) in May, following a revised 1.1% increase in April (originally reported as 1.4%). The index rose 6.5% for the 12 months ended May 2026, up from the 5.7% now posted for April and the fastest pace since November 2022 (7.4%). Coupled with the downward revisions, these results are somewhat lower than market expectations. Market participants remain highly focused on price pressures in the U.S. economy and the likelihood that the energy volatility will continue to increase broader inflationary pressures. 

The U.S. Department of Labor announced that initial jobless claims totalled 229,000 (seasonally adjusted) in the week ending June 6, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 225,000. The 4-week moving average was 219,000, an increase of 4,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 214,750. These results are somewhat weaker than market estimates. 

Note:
All index performance is in Canadian dollars.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS
The information in this letter is derived from various sources, including CI Global Asset Management, CRA, Bloomberg, National Post, Globe and Mail, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Reuters, Investment Executive, Advisor.ca, MarketWatch, Toronto Sun, The Guardian, MSN.ca and Statistics Canada at various dates. This material is provided for general information and is subject to change without notice. Before acting on any of the above, please contact me for individual financial advice based on your personal circumstances. Certain statements contained in this communication are based in whole or in part on information provided by third parties and CI Global Asset Management has taken reasonable steps to ensure their accuracy. Market conditions may change which may impact the information contained in this document.