Market News: Week Ending June 26, 2026

Market News: Week Ending June 26, 2026

Statistics Canada reported that the consumer price index rose 0.5% (seasonally adjusted) in May. On a year-over-year basis, the CPI was up 3.2%, a considerable increase from the 2.8% pace posted in April. This move in the pace of inflation was due largely to the continued surge in energy prices, as a result of the conflict in the Middle East. Specifically, the data show a 33.2% increase in gasoline prices when compared to May 2025. Seven of the eight main CPI subgroups moved higher during the month. Recreation, education and reading reported the largest monthly advance (3.5%). Shelter (-0.1%) reported the lone decline in April. The three Bank of Canada core inflation measures ranged from 2.0% to 2.7% on a year-over-year basis. CPI common, which the central bank says is most closely correlated with the output gap rose from 2.5% to 2.7% in this report. The greater inflationary pressures from energy were anticipated and are unlikely to influence the Bank of Canada at its next policy meeting, scheduled for July 15. 

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.1% (q/q annualized) in the first quarter of 2026. This is the This is the “third estimate” and is stronger than the 1.6% figure previously reported. In the final quarter of 2025, real GDP expanded by 0.5% (on the same basis). The changes primarily reflected a downward revision to imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, that was partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending. These results are stronger than market expectations and continue to suggest that the U.S. remains on solid economic growth path. 

The U.S. Census Bureau announced that durable goods orders fell 4.5% in May, following an 8.5% advance in April. Volatile aircraft orders were held out as the primary driver in the reversal. Despite the monthly drop, on a cumulative year-to-date basis, orders are now up 6.2% compared to the same time in 2025.  Excluding transportation, new orders gained 1.3% in May. Excluding defence, new orders dropped 4.6% during the month. Given the recent gyrations in the data, these figures are broadly in line with market expectations. Orders for durable goods indicate how busy manufacturers will be in the months to come, as they work to fill those orders. 

The U.S. Department of Labor announced that initial jobless claims totalled 215,000 (seasonally adjusted) in the week ending June 20 a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 226,000 to 227,000. The 4-week moving average was 224,250, an increase of 750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 223,250 to 223,500. These results were stronger than market estimates. 

Statistics Canada reported that average weekly earnings rose 1.0% in April. On a year-over-year basis, average weekly earnings rose 3.8%, which is now higher than the current pace of inflation (3.2% in May). These results are above market expectations. As this indicator measures growth in income, it can reveal trends in consumer spending. 

Note:
All index performance is in Canadian dollars.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS
The information in this letter is derived from various sources, including CI Global Asset Management, CRA, Bloomberg, National Post, Globe and Mail, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Reuters, Investment Executive, Advisor.ca, MarketWatch, Toronto Sun, The Guardian, MSN.ca and Statistics Canada at various dates. This material is provided for general information and is subject to change without notice. Before acting on any of the above, please contact me for individual financial advice based on your personal circumstances. Certain statements contained in this communication are based in whole or in part on information provided by third parties and CI Global Asset Management has taken reasonable steps to ensure their accuracy. Market conditions may change which may impact the information contained in this document.