Market News: Week Ending July 3, 2026

Market News: Week Ending July 3, 2026

Statistics Canada announced that, on a monthly basis, real gross domestic product (GDP) by industry expanded by 0.5% in April. The current data release contained a further set of revisions going back to January 2025 (generally downward revisions). The April figure was above the forecast for a 0.4% gain that was provided as forward guidance by the statistics agency in the previous data release. Even with the surprise gain in April, on a year-over-year basis, GDP growth stood with a marginal 1.1% advance. At the same time, GDP per-capita (working aged individuals) posted a 0.5% expansion during the month, sufficient to push annual growth on a per-capita basis into positive territory (0.4% year-over-year) for the first time since April 2023. Public administration (+0.7%) was the largest contributor to the growth for the second consecutive month. Once again, Statistics Canada provided forward guidance, stating that “advance information indicates that real GDP by industry increased 0.1%.” 

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the unemployment rate edged down from 4.3% to 4.2% in June. At the same time, gains in non-farm payrolls were reported as 57,000 during the month, adding to the revised 129,000 gain recorded for May (originally reported as 172,000). During June, average hourly earnings climbed 0.3% to stand with a year-over-year advance of 3.5%; below headline inflation (4.2% in May). This report was broadly in line with consensus estimates and continues to show considerable resilience in the labour market. Coupled with the recent increase in inflation, this will prompt further market debate on the future direction of Fed policy given the current ‘on hold’ position. The next meeting is scheduled for July 28 and 29. This is the most closely followed set of U.S. statistics as it indicates the relative health of the various sectors of the economy and is suggestive of consumer spending. 

The U.S. Department of Labor announced that initial jobless claims totalled 215,000 (seasonally adjusted) in the week ending June 27 a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 215,000 to 216,000. The 4-week moving average was 222,000, a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 224,250 to 224,500. These results were stronger than market estimates. 

Note:
All index performance is in Canadian dollars.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS
The information in this letter is derived from various sources, including CI Global Asset Management, CRA, Bloomberg, National Post, Globe and Mail, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Reuters, Investment Executive, Advisor.ca, MarketWatch, Toronto Sun, The Guardian, MSN.ca and Statistics Canada at various dates. This material is provided for general information and is subject to change without notice. Before acting on any of the above, please contact me for individual financial advice based on your personal circumstances. Certain statements contained in this communication are based in whole or in part on information provided by third parties and CI Global Asset Management has taken reasonable steps to ensure their accuracy. Market conditions may change which may impact the information contained in this document.