Market News: Week Ending July 10, 2026

Market News: Week Ending July 10, 2026

The Institute for Supply Management announced that its Non-Manufacturing (Services) PMI edged lower to 54.0 in June, from May’s 54.5 level. The June reading is the 24th consecutive above the key 50.0 (generally expanding) level for the services sector. With the market looking for a minor decline, this report is in line with consensus expectations. This result indicates signs of further expansion of the service sector. 

Statistics Canada announced that, in May, Canada's merchandise exports increased 0.9% while imports edged 0.2% lower. As a result, Canada's merchandise trade balance with the world rose to a surplus of $4.2 billion from $3.4 billion in April. Exports to the United States rose 1.5% in May, a fourth consecutive monthly increase. Meanwhile, imports from the United States fell 1.4% in May. As a result, Canada's trade surplus with the United States widened from $10.3 billion in April to $11.6 billion in May. This was the largest surplus since the record high observed in January 2025. StatsCan simultaneously released the services trade results and a deficit of $0.2 billion was recorded in May. It is widely expected that these figures will continue to fluctuate as international trade remains unsettled. The combined, total trade surplus will be a positive sign for overall GDP growth in the second quarter. 

The U.S. Census Bureau announced that the country's international trade deficit in goods and services stood at $77.6 billion in May, far wider than the revised $54.6 billion gap now reported for April (previously reported as $55.9 billion). May exports were $317.7 billion, $10.5 billion less than April exports. May imports were $395.3 billion, $12.5 billion more than April imports. A considerably wider trade deficit was anticipated, so with the revisions, the report is in line with market expectations. 

Statistics Canada announced that overall employment rose by 18,000 in June. The recent gains have gone a long way in reversing the large losses seen earlier in 2026 and the cumulative jobs lost since the end of 2025 now stands at just 6,300. At the same time, the overall unemployment rate edged lower to 6.5% from 6.6% in May, as the labour force reported a modest increase (5,000). Regardless, the June results left the overall annual rate of job growth at a marginal 0.7%. Another increase in the population (26,700) left the participation rate (the percentage of working age individuals who were either working or looking for work) at 65.0%, virtually unchanged from the cyclical low (64.9% March 2026) and far below the pre-pandemic peak of 67.3%. This indicates that as the population has surged, there are now 809,000 potential workers still on the sidelines compared to 95,000 at the end of 2010. A return to 67.3% participation would produce a more realistic unemployment rate of 9.8% - consistent with the ongoing recession. The headline results were in line with market expectations. The soft job market and concurrent high inflation (3.2%) leave the Bank of Canada in a precarious position as they approach their next policy announcement, scheduled for July 15.

Regards,

Glenn

Note:
All index performance is in Canadian dollars.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS
The information in this letter is derived from various sources, including CI Global Asset Management, CRA, Bloomberg, National Post, Globe and Mail, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Reuters, Investment Executive, Advisor.ca, MarketWatch, Toronto Sun, The Guardian, MSN.ca and Statistics Canada at various dates. This material is provided for general information and is subject to change without notice. Before acting on any of the above, please contact me for individual financial advice based on your personal circumstances. Certain statements contained in this communication are based in whole or in part on information provided by third parties and CI Global Asset Management has taken reasonable steps to ensure their accuracy. Market conditions may change which may impact the information contained in this document.