Market News: Week Ending July 31, 2026

Market News: Week Ending July 31, 2026

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1.5% (q/q annualized) in the second quarter of 2026. This is the “advance estimate” prepared with preliminary data and is often subject to substantial revision. In the first quarter of 2026, real GDP expanded by 2.1% (on the same basis) as the rebound from shutdown of the Federal Government provided a significant lift. The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the second quarter were increases in consumer spending, investment, and exports that were partly offset by a decrease in government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. These results are somewhat weaker than market expectations but continue to suggest that the U.S. remains on solid economic growth path. 

The U.S. Department of Labor announced that initial jobless claims totalled 197,000 (seasonally adjusted) in the week ending July 25, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 187,000 to 188,000. The 4-week moving average was 202,750, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 207,500 to 207,750. These results are stronger than market estimates. 

Statistics Canada announced that, on a monthly basis, real gross domestic product (GDP) by industry expanded by 0.3% in May. The current data release contained a further set of revisions going back to January 2025 (generally upward revisions). The May figure was above the forecast for a 0.1% gain that was provided as forward guidance by the statistics agency in the previous data release. With the surprise gain in May, GDP growth stood with a 1.7% advance on a year-over-year basis, the strongest since July 2025 (1.8%). At the same time, GDP per-capita (working aged individuals) posted a 0.3% expansion during the month, sufficient to leave annual growth on a per-capita basis in positive territory (1.0% year-over-year) for the second consecutive month. Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction (+1.0%) was the largest contributor for the month. Once again, Statistics Canada provided forward guidance for June, stating that “advance information indicates that real GDP by industry increased 0.2%.”This would suggest that the Canadian economy came out of recession during the second quarter of 2026.

Note:
All index performance is in Canadian dollars.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS
The information in this letter is derived from various sources, including CI Global Asset Management, CRA, Bloomberg, National Post, Globe and Mail, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Reuters, Investment Executive, Advisor.ca, MarketWatch, Toronto Sun, The Guardian, MSN.ca and Statistics Canada at various dates. This material is provided for general information and is subject to change without notice. Before acting on any of the above, please contact me for individual financial advice based on your personal circumstances. Certain statements contained in this communication are based in whole or in part on information provided by third parties and CI Global Asset Management has taken reasonable steps to ensure their accuracy. Market conditions may change which may impact the information contained in this document.