Market News: Week Ending September 11, 2026

Navigating Rates, Trade Tensions, and Market Dynamics (Week Ending September 11, 2026)
Cross-currents shaped Canadian and global financial markets this week as domestic monetary policy decisions, escalating trade friction, and shifting global energy prices created a complex economic backdrop for investors.
On September 2, the Bank of Canada kept its key policy interest rate steady at 2.25%. While domestic economic momentum rebounded strongly in the second quarter—with real GDP expanding at a 3.3% annualized pace on solid household and business spending—Governor Tiff Macklem emphasized lingering excess supply and heightened uncertainty surrounding foreign trade policies. Underlying Canadian price pressures remain anchored, with core inflation sitting right at the 2.0% target. However, elevated energy costs pushed headline CPI up to 3.0% in July, keeping central bankers cautious.
The trade environment grew significantly more complex on September 8, when Canada’s retaliatory counter-tariffs officially took effect. The federal government applied surtaxes ranging from 15% to 50% on $27.6 billion worth of U.S. consumer and industrial imports, directly matching the 50% U.S. tariffs placed on Canadian exports in late August after bilateral talks broke down. These friction points raise input costs across manufacturing, retail, and agriculture, presenting clear risks to business investment and corporate margins heading into the fall.
In the United States, sticky inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and persistent fuel costs ($4.08 per gallon on average at month-end) continue to keep market expectations for a potential September rate hike alive. Even so, corporate performance has shown remarkable resilience. S&P 500 per-share earnings surged 53% in Q2, heavily supported by consumer spending and massive investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure. In Canada, corporate profits were equally impressive, climbing 9.7% quarter-over-quarter to $228.2 billion, led by a massive 68.3% surge in oil and gas earnings.
Looking at employment, the job markets on both sides of the border showed diverging paths. Canadian employers added a robust 75,100 jobs in July, driving the national unemployment rate down to 2.4-year lows at 6.4%. Conversely, U.S. nonfarm payrolls dipped by 23,000 jobs, while unemployment held steady at 4.1%.
What This Means for Portfolios
Despite headline volatility and rising trade costs, equity markets have demonstrated notable durability. The S&P/TSX Composite Index continues its year-to-date outperformance relative to global peers, heavily bolstered by strong commodity prices and steady bank earnings. High crude prices continue to support energy sector cash flows, offering a natural cushion for broader domestic earnings. As central banks maintain a data-dependent, wait-and-see stance, staying disciplined with a well-diversified, multi-asset strategy remains the most effective way to navigate headline-driven market swings

Portfolio Positioning & What Investors Can Expect Next
1. Energy Volatility & Corporate Profits: Sustained energy prices bolster energy sector cash flows and Canadian export revenue, providing a buffer for TSX corporate earnings even as broader economic conditions moderate.
2. Navigating Tariff Impact: The escalation of U.S.-Canada tariffs adds input costs for manufacturing, retail, and agriculture. Businesses face margin pressure that could weigh on business investment through the autumn.
3. Focus on Balanced Discipline: With short-term fixed-income yields holding elevated and central banks maintaining restrictive or neutral policy rates, maintaining a diversified, multi-asset portfolio remains the best defense against headlines-driven market swings.

NOTE:
All index performance is in Canadian dollars.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS:
The information in this letter is derived from various sources, including CI Global Asset Management, CRA, Bloomberg, National Post, Globe and Mail, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Reuters, Investment Executive, Advisor.ca, MarketWatch, Toronto Sun, The Guardian, MSN.ca and Statistics Canada at various dates. This material is provided for general information and is subject to change without notice. Before acting on any of the above, please contact me for individual financial advice based on your personal circumstances. Certain statements contained in this communication are based in whole or in part on information provided by third parties and CI Global Asset Management has taken reasonable steps to ensure their accuracy. Market conditions may change which may impact the information contained in this document.