Market News: Week Ending October 2, 2026

Market News: Week Ending October 2, 2026

Statistics Canada announced that, on a monthly basis, real gross domestic product (GDP) by industry fell by less than 0.1% in July. The current data release contained another set of revisions going back to January 2025 (generally downward revisions). The July figure was in line with the forecast for no gain that was provided as forward guidance by the statistics agency in the previous data release. With the weak result in July, GDP growth stood with a 1.4% advance on a year-over-year basis, well down from the 2.1% pace seen in June. At the same time, GDP per-capita (working aged individuals) posted a similar (less than 0.1%) decline during the month, leaving annual growth on a per-capita basis at 0.8%. Canada’s standard of living (per-capita GDP) has now declined in 29 of the last 46 months. Management of companies and enterprises (-1.5%) posted the largest monthly decline of the 20 primary sub-sectors. Once again, Statistics Canada provided forward guidance for August, stating that “advance information indicates that real GDP by industry increased 0.2%.”This would suggest that the Canadian economy moderated considerably in the first part of the third quarter.
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.2% (q/q annualized) in the second quarter of 2026. This is the This is the “third estimate” and is well above the 1.5% the figure previously reported. In the first quarter of 2026, real GDP expanded by 2.1% (on the same basis). The overall changes primarily reflected upward revisions to investment, consumer spending, and government spending. These results are stronger than market expectations and continue to suggest that the U.S. remains on solid economic growth path.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the unemployment rate edged higher from 4.1% to 4.2% in September. At the same time, non-farm payrolls were reported as increasing by 29,000 during the month, following the revised 133,000 advance now reported for August (originally posted as 162,000). During September, average hourly earnings climbed 0.1% to stand with a year-over-year advance of 3.0%; below headline inflation (3.4% in August). This report was broadly in line with consensus estimates for limited change. The strong labour market coupled with still elevated inflation will prompt further market debate on the probability that the Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy. The next Fed meeting is scheduled for October 27 and 28. This is the most closely followed set of U.S. statistics as it indicates the relative health of the various sectors of the economy and is suggestive of consumer spending.

NOTE:
All index performance is in Canadian dollars.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS:
The information in this letter is derived from various sources, including CI Global Asset Management, CRA, Bloomberg, National Post, Globe and Mail, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Reuters, Investment Executive, Advisor.ca, MarketWatch, Toronto Sun, The Guardian, MSN.ca and Statistics Canada at various dates. This material is provided for general information and is subject to change without notice. Before acting on any of the above, please contact me for individual financial advice based on your personal circumstances. Certain statements contained in this communication are based in whole or in part on information provided by third parties and CI Global Asset Management has taken reasonable steps to ensure their accuracy. Market conditions may change which may impact the information contained in this document.