Market News: Week Ending October 9, 2026

Market News: Week Ending October 9, 2026

Statistics Canada announced that, in August, Canada's merchandise exports increased 2.5% while imports dropped 2.0%. As a result, Canada's merchandise trade balance with the world rose to a surplus of $4.2 billion from a revised $787 million in July (previously reported as $769 million). Exports to the United States rose 8.1% in August, while imports from the U.S. fell 2.5%. As a result, Canada's trade surplus with the United States widened from $6.1 billion in July to $11.2 billion in August. This is the largest positive monthly change ever observed in Canada's trade balance with the United States. StatsCan simultaneously released the services trade results and a surplus of $0.4 billion was recorded in August. It is widely expected that these figures will continue to fluctuate as international trade remains unsettled. The combined, total trade surplus will be a positive sign for overall GDP growth in the third quarter.

The U.S. Census Bureau announced that the country's international trade deficit in goods and services stood at $105.6 billion in August, considerably wider than the $92.8 billion gap for July. August exports were $315.2 billion, $4.5 billion more than July exports. August imports were $420.8 billion, $17.2 billion more than July imports. A wider trade deficit was anticipated but the changes were greater than anticipated.

The U.S. Department of Labor announced that initial jobless claims totalled 197,000 (seasonally adjusted) in the week ending October 3, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 197,000 to 199,000. The 4-week moving average was 198,000, a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 200,000 to 200,500. These results are in line with market estimates.

Statistics Canada announced that overall employment plummeted by 68,300 in September. This adds to the 41,700 jobs lost in August. The recent declines in employment have left the cumulative losses, thus far in 2026, at 41,200. At the same time, the overall unemployment rate rose to 6.5%, even though the labour force also reported an outright decline (52,900). In line with the September jobs losses, the annual rate of job growth stood at just 0.5%. This report showed that the working aged population (15 yrs+) increased by 23,700 in September. This combination pushed the participation rate (the percentage of working age individuals who were either working or looking for work) down to 64.8%, the lowest seen since the pandemic and far below the pre-pandemic peak of 67.3%. This indicates there are now 878,000 potential workers on the sidelines compared to 95,000 at the end of 2010. A return to 67.3% participation would produce a more realistic unemployment rate of 10.0% - consistent with a recession. Regardless, the headline results were far weaker than market expectations, but stubbornly high inflation (3.0% in August) has many market participants looking for the Bank of Canada to begin raising interest rates. The next monetary policy announcement is scheduled for October 28.

NOTE:
All index performance is in Canadian dollars.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS:
The information in this letter is derived from various sources, including CI Global Asset Management, CRA, Bloomberg, National Post, Globe and Mail, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Reuters, Investment Executive, Advisor.ca, MarketWatch, Toronto Sun, The Guardian, MSN.ca and Statistics Canada at various dates. This material is provided for general information and is subject to change without notice. Before acting on any of the above, please contact me for individual financial advice based on your personal circumstances. Certain statements contained in this communication are based in whole or in part on information provided by third parties and CI Global Asset Management has taken reasonable steps to ensure their accuracy. Market conditions may change which may impact the information contained in this document.